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Over the Iran Nuclear Deal, Israel Is Worried
About a Possible Clash with Washington
By Adnan Abu
Amer
PIC, September 5, 2022
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![](../../../../images/2022/September/4%20p/Adnan%20Abu%20Amer.jpeg) |
![](../../../../images/2022/August/22%20p/Iran's%20Foreign%20Minister,%20Hossein%20Amir-Abdollahian,%20and%20EU%20foreign%20chief,%20Josep%20Borell,%20in%20Tehran,%20July%2025,%202022%20cnbc.jpeg) |
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Iran's Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian,
and EU foreign chief, Josep Borell, in Tehran, July 25, 2022 |
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As the countdown begins for the signing of a nuclear agreement
between Iran and world powers, a number of disputes have surfaced
between Israel and the US about the deal. There is also criticism within
Israel of the government's political and military approach towards the
agreement. The occupation state appears to be opposing the whole world,
which has more or less united to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions through
diplomatic means, while Israel foolishly sticks to the punishment
approach.
In a step devoid of political wisdom, former Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to prevent the signing of the
2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal agreed by the
administration of then US President Barack Obama. Netanyahu arrived in
Washington on the eve of the signing ceremony and delivered a speech in
the US Congress against the deal behind Obama's back. Obama did not
hesitate to describe him as ungrateful. In the end, Netanyahu returned
empty handed while the agreement was signed.
The strange thing is
that current Prime Minister Yair Lapid is now following in Netanyahu's
footsteps. His National Security Adviser, Eyal Kholta, has arrived in
Washington for talks at the White House during which he will hear the
details of the agreement before expressing Israel's opposition. It is
true that he will be briefed on the details closely, but he will not get
what he wants. US President Joe Biden is determined to give Israel a
second chance, which it will be a mistake to miss. Mossad spy chief
David Barnea has also criticized the agreement, which is being seen as
direct criticism of the Biden administration.
Meanwhile, more
Israelis are calling for a different policy on the Iran nuclear issue.
Automatic opposition to any agreement, coupled with angry rhetoric and
an attack on Iran, may earn Brownie points within certain sections of
the Israeli electorate, but it brings Tehran closer to deciding to arm
itself with nuclear weapons, because it will be the one to decide
whether there will be a renewable agreement with the global powers
regarding the nuclear file.
Many Israelis believe the new
agreement to be less useful than what was on the table earlier. The fact
is that Israel can't expect anything better. Iran has made great
progress in the production of centrifuges, and is able to enrich uranium
faster than before. Israeli policy has played an important part in
reaching this bleak situation. It began with Netanyahu's direct attack
on Obama, and he continued to push Trump to withdraw from the agreement
— which he did in 2018 — even though Iran had fulfilled its part of the
terms.
Israelis are afraid of reproducing Netanyahu's opposition
to the nuclear agreement to the point of starting a crisis with Biden,
which could cost Israel a lot. The current agreement, even if Israel
sees it as bad, is better than no agreement at all, because Israel's
current policy is pushing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Tel Aviv
needs to think seriously about a change of policy.
A nuclear Iran
is apparently a serious threat to Israel, because it will open the
regional nuclear arms race even wider. This will require an examination
of every step that Iran takes when looking at other conflict zones.
Israelis recall that the late Mossad chief Meir Dagan said, "Forcefully
preventing Iran's bomb cannot be achieved by Israel alone; it requires
international preparation."
All of this confirms that Israel is
facing a complex situation, which has prompted its military and security
leaders to ask the politicians and government to coordinate their
activities with other countries, notably the US, as well as with their
regional partners. The idea must be to create checks and balances
against Iranian interests in various places, and to stop believing
blindly that the only solution is Israel's military power. Such a belief
means, in short, bringing Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
Israelis are now talking about the conflicting interests of the US and
Israel in the nuclear agreement to be signed. This requires the latter
to find a way to act without necessarily causing a clash between Lapid
and Biden. Netanyahu clashed with Obama, causing relations to
deteriorate dramatically.
Although not much is known about the
details of the new nuclear agreement, it is clear that it is already
much weaker than the original JCPOA signed by Obama, according to
Israeli estimates. If implemented, the deal will limit Iran's ability to
enrich uranium even more than the original agreement. Meanwhile, Tel
Aviv is still making great efforts to persuade Washington not to sign
the agreement, or at least to toughen some of its provisions.
Four main components have been identified to deal with the consequences
of the imminent agreement: careful monitoring by the intelligence
services, which will prevent Iran from developing an explosive nuclear
device secretly; the means to respond and disrupt production if Iran
resumes its nuclear weapons development program; a joint identifier by
Tel Aviv and Washington as when to consider Iran to have achieved a
breakthrough towards nuclear weapons; and understandings on the action
to be taken by Tel Aviv and Washington together, or separately, if
Tehran actually gets a nuclear bomb.
It is clear that there are a
number of conflicting interests between the occupying power and the
United States. The latter has an interest in lifting sanctions on Iran
so that it will be able to produce and export oil and gas with no
limits, averaging 3.5 million barrels per day, in the face of the
consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to fill the fuel shortage
that Russia has created for Europe in the coming winter. The US also
wants to save Iran from falling into the arms of China and Russia and
thus reduce the strategic and economic negotiating power of the
anti-Western camp.
- Dr. Adnan Abu Amer heads the Political
Science and Media Department of Umma University Open Education in Gaza.
His article appeared in MEMO.
Israel is worried about a possible clash with Washington (palinfo.com)
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