Mission & Name
US Foreign Policy (Dr. El-Najjar's Articles)
The Russian Life Line Into Afghanistan:
Will Russian Lifeboats Rescue The Drowning NATO?
By Ali Al-Hail
ccun.org, March 16, 2009
Perceivably, since October 2001
almost entirely, every single attempt by US-Led- NATO - to crush Taliban -
has ended with a failure, or at least, with 'no win situation', according
to President Obama's confession, last week. Retrospectively, on October
17th 2001, as the Bush administration, invaded Afghanistan , Taliban
tactically, withdrew from office at Kabul to their office in the caves.
Neither, the US 's special forces nor, the
US-Led-EISAF nor the US-Led-NATO nor, the US-trained-Afghani government's
forces, weakened Taliban. On the contrary, Taliban's forces have ever
since, been increasing both in quantity, as well as in quality.
Such a phenomenon seems incomprehensible from a military point of view,
considering the might of the forces on the other side. Thus, it seems
that, the US finds itself in a catch-22. After the Taliban-Caused-high
toll took on NATO's forces over the years, some of NATO's states began to
loose interest and fall apart, despite US-Led-NATO's public rhetoric.
This state of intolerance by some NATO's member states, with US's
persistence of prolonging NATO's in a loosing battle, against a
Taliban-Led-guerilla war, determined to win, Obama, was reported to have
decided to pump the death line, with 17,000 more US's troops. This
initiative was largely, perceived as a cover up for the observation (to
say the least) that, the US is in a real quandary. Hence, came the recent
visit of Secretary of State, Clinton to Russia .
It appears that, the US-Led-NATO - including NATO's EU member states -
needs Russia in Afghanistan , should NATO continues to go on with its
'dilemmatic' occupation of Afghanistan . And NATO despite its high toll,
seems determined to do so.
Notably, since Pakistan
became potentially, risky for NATO to carryout its supply through its
lands, for their military, stuck in Afghanistan . It's not a stretch, to
assert that, (the 'life line' for NATO's operations in Afghanistan via
Pakistan has severely, been cutoff by groups of Pakistani sympathizers
with their 'brothers and sisters' in Afghanistan ) profoundly, hurt the
US-Led-NATO. As such, Russia was apparently, the only 'geopolitical'
alternative left in the shivering hand of NATO in Afghanistan .
Many argue that, Russia has eagerly, been awaiting such an opportunity, to
get away amongst other things, with muddling in the Caucasus affairs.
Especially, bullying Georgia , Russia 's control over sponsoring the
breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia , and over the
Russian Gas to Europe via Ukraine .
Caucasus energy-rich states are potentially, playing cards in the hand of
Russia vis-à-vis the language of interests with the US-Led-NATO, and the
EU. The US is aware of the fact that, Russia influenced a number of
Caucasus states to closedown US 's military bases.
One presumes, as do many that, the latter was an answer to the why the US
decided to get closer to Russia . These bases were extremely, vital to the
US-Led-NATO in Afghanistan , from which US's bombers fly to bomb
Afghanistan albeit, bombing innocent civilians presumably, mistaken to
Taliban's fighters. These bases, were always, a part of the geopolitical
strategy of the US-Led-NATO in Afghanistan .
It's obviously, a political game between both sides.
Who's losing out, are smaller states of the Caucasus. Georgia , for
example had too much expectations from the US-Led-NATO, when Mikheil
Sakashvili, the Georgian president took the decision in 2008, to cease
back Abkhazia and South Ossetia .
Being a good
reader into the NATO's map in Afghanistan Russia, beat Georgia in (what
has become to be known) the Five Day War of August 2008. Through the
detrimental failure of Georgia , to annex the two breakaway states, NATO
was widely, seen as a failure in confronting Russia . The war led to
strengthening Russia in the Caucasus region, as a whole particularly, with
both Abkhazia and South Ossetia declaring total independence that, was
immediately, recognized by Russia.
In the view of all of that, the US-Led-NATO needs Russia for so many
things, and the vice versa. Keeping its military basis in the Caucasus
region, is a top priority to the US. Only, Russia that can guarantee that,
providing US-Led-NATO payoff the right price, Russia would ask for.
Also, NATO needs Russia to rein in Iran 's 'ambitious' nuclear program,
had Russia wished to do so, within the global power of struggle.
Additionally, NATO needs Russia in North Korea , China , Iraq , and in the
QUARTET, as regard to the Palestinian Israeli conflict. Most importantly
of all, the US-Led-NATO needs its supplies into Afghanistan to travel from
through Russia .
In return, would Russia need
the US-Led-NATO, and the EU, to unveto Russia , in the Caucasus region, a
compromise over the missile shield in Eastern Europe , a membership in the
NATO, and a larger role for the Russian diplomacy in the World.
Having said that, Russia is well aware of the fact that, Taliban has also,
sympathizers in the Caucasus region therefore, what happened in Pakistan ,
could happen in Russia . In addition to the latter, Russia is well aware
of the fact that, the US-Led-NATO, needs Russia not just as a route for
its life line into Afghanistan, but it needs Russia to participate with
the NATO in Afghanistan, since Russia within the former Soviet Union, had
an experience albeit, not pleasant, fighting the Afghans.
Russia , has already been there, and it realized how almost impossible, to
defeat the Mujahideens. As a result, many argue that, Russia might agree
to certain US 's demands. But it doesn't seem inconceivable that, it would
agree to go into Afghanistan . Russia knows for sure that, US-Led-four
highly, sophisticated armed forces, failed in weakening, much less
defeating Taliban, leaving these forces stuck in the mud of Afghanistan .
Professor, Dr. Ali Al-Hail, Professor of Mass Communication, Twice
Award Winner, Fulbright Visiting Scholar, Vice-President
Of Qatar Fulbright Group, CSR Award Judge and Board Member of AUSACE, ASC,
IABD, NEBAA, BEA, IMDA and EAJMC American Associations.
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