Zardari's Overture on Kashmir

By Ershad Mahmud

ccun.org, March 17, 2008

 
Asif Ali Zardari, the co-chairperson of Peoples Party’s remarks over Kashmir during in an interview to Indian cable television CNBC invited a great deal of discourse over Kashmir and Pakistan-India relations after a long lull. It would be too early to jump to a conclusion and describe Asif’s and his party’s future course of action regarding the Kashmir. However, his off the cuff ideas seemingly indicate that he desires to go beyond the beaten track of history to reorient triangular relationship between Pakistan, India and people of the Kashmir.
 
That is why; he suggested putting the Kashmir problem in hibernation for the next generation while trade and business activities should take precedence for the time being. He hinted that China-India model can be followed while seeking interim solution. Skeptics believe that Asif Zardari’s utterance was a soft posturing toward Washington and New Delhi to have them on board at this critical time of the government formation. Like Zardari, most of the Pakistan watchers strongly opine that Washington and New Delhi regards Musharraf as the sole guardian of Pak-India composite dialogue process. The subsequent denial also shows that it was not meant for the local audience.
 
No matter whatever is the truth, this statement broke the silence over Kashmir and brought it into headlines this otherwise defocused issue. So far, Pakistan and India have completed four rounds of dialogues among several levels of officials and now both countries’ foreign secretaries and foreign ministers would shortly review it. President Pervez Musharraf’s flexible proposals persuaded New Delhi to change its traditional stance and engage Kashmiri leaders as well as initiate parlays with Islamabad.
 
 Musharraf’s suggestions were seen as to have weakened the barging position of Pakistan but it also obliged India to accept the centrality of the Kashmir issue. The 38-month long dialogue process produced some significant results though could not change the entire spectrum. The initiation of Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service and All Parties Hurriyat Conference’s (APHC) visit to Islamabad are considered as landmark events.
 
The largely overlooked but significant development is that the Indian leadership and media had by and large stopped episodically maligning Pakistan over inconsequential affairs particularly bracketing it with terrorism networks. It stunned many when Indian National Security Adviser, M K Narayanan, made public statement that ‘it is a remote possibility of Pakistan nuclear weapons falling in the hands of radicals.’ Besides, it is said that Indian Premier Manmohan Singh may shortly visit Islamabad to give fresh impetus to the ongoing frail peace process.
 
Conversely, on the fateful day of Feb 18th Musharraf’s political legacy had been routed from every sphere of life but peace process is the only exception. Fortunately, the BJP and Pakistan military ruler Pervez Musharraf are the architects of the current composite dialogue process. So, both traditionally known hard line forces are morally bound to support this process and they are fully backing it. Being a civilian face of Pakistan, PPP-led government has the potential to carve out international backing over Kashmir while New Delhi will be glade to do business with the elected representatives of Pakistan. Therefore, Zardari should cash in these opportunities instead of pondering upon to freeze the ongoing movement. The upcoming government should endeavor to move forward on eight thorny issues under the discussion simultaneously; piecemeal approach has already exhausted and bore no tangible results from Simla to date.
 
There is no denying the fact that trade and business between Pakistan and India has been tied with the Kashmir solution. It is always wise and profitable to trade and do business with neighbors. Furthermore, India desperately wants overland access to Afghanistan and Central Asian States including Iran. If Islamabad left travel restrictions then Indian containers may run from Delhi to Kabul. Doubtlessly, it has the potential to generate huge chunk of foreign exchange, the most needed commodity here. However, it is a complex issue and demands broader consensus in the perspective of Pakistan’s national interests and is linked with the forward movement in the peace process.
 
If the new government takes u-turn it may ends up in derailing the entire process and losing the achievements obtained so far. It may also vindicate those hard-liners in New Delhi who had long been arguing to not budge from the stated position and wait until Islamabad succumbs to pressure.
 
Trade and business flourish in peaceful environment. India was Pakistan’s leading trading partner before 1965, but war turned the entire trade and business ties upside down. It is unfortunate that both countries had not been able to find out peaceful and lasting solution of this festering wound, which added new dimensions to the conflict over the period of time. Now, a large number of state and non-state actors are running their own underground empires besides they have enormous war economy. In this context, ignoring Kashmir will be a mistake as it will not serve anybody’s interests.
 
A number of empirical studies shows that Indian control Jammu and Kashmir possess large quantum of small weapons and proliferation of these arms is widespread. The armed conflict has entered into its 19th year which has unfortunately produced a large number of war children. The boys offer a handy raw material to easily indulge in any sort of adventurism.
 
At the same time, international environment and particularly the United States attitude towards the Muslim countries are also fueling anti-West sentiment. Resistance in Iraq and Afghanistan against occupational forces made an impact on the Kashmiri mindset too. If the current peace process doest not produce positive result then these youths and underground militant outfits may become part of the international jihadi network. Although, Al-Qaeda’s presence inside Kashmir has not been recorded till now but there is no guarantee that Kashmiri militants would not plunge into its trap.
                                                     
It is also matter of fact that establishments in Islamabad and New Delhi could not overcome the existing trust deficit. They are still banking on the old tradition of zero-sum game and do their level best to not let any opportunity go in vain if they can hurt each other. The visible change of heart has been reflected at both public and political level but both sides’ establishments have yet not grasped it. Above all, the upcoming government led by Peoples Party has to understand its limitations in power structure. It has to confront huge domestic political problems and lacks skills to fix all the problems in one go.
 
It would be wise for the new government to invest time and energy for seeking the solution of the issue instead of dumping it. Above all, Kashmiri stakeholders and their sympathizers in Pakistan may not allow any government to forget Kashmir. Traditional wisdom holds that Asif Ali Zardari-led government may not be able to drastically change the course over Kashmir in the days ahead.
 
If he wants to alter the Kashmir policy then the upcoming government should initiate a debate in the parliament before reshaping it. In the past Musharraf had made gigantic pronouncements on a number of issues but could not get the public along and eventually got nowhere. So, PPP must avoid repeating the same mistakes and give utmost importance to the parliament and build on its vital policies on broader national consensus. The split mandate in recently held elections certainly demands larger national consensus instead of solo flight.
 
ershad@Islamabad.net