Arab Gulf Region And The Giant Powers, Part VII: Why Did the  Gulf Arabs break ranks With Bush Administration's Agenda to attack Iran? 

By Ali Al-Hail

ccun.org, November 5, 2007

 

I. Summary Of Part VI:

In part VI, I discussed how the US plans to clear the way to dominate oil-rich Arab Gulf region of the GCC off the giant powers. After the US weakened Iraq, it seems that, it goes after Iran. Most probably, could Turkey be also, on the agenda. The strategic aim is believed to be securing the oil and Israel's security.

In this part, I will discuss aspects of GCC 's states of the Arab Gulf region's skepticism about a US possible war against Iran.
II. Not To Be Caught in Between:

History seems to repeat itself in the Arab Gulf region yet again. In the same way, did the Arab Gulf states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) isolate themselves from the war between the two regional giants, Iran ad Iraq in the early 1980's allegedly, 'advised' by the United States, they have recently, done, more or less the same.
Since March this year, both individually, and collectively, through the GCC cartel had they made it clear that, they wouldn't under any given circumstances participate in a US possible assault against Iran. On Wednesday, October 30, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia made a landmark visit to the UK accompanied by 600 delegates flown to London aboard six aero planes.

Many argued that, the mission was two folded. On one hand, to urge London to use its good offices with the Bush administration not to lunch a attack on Iran, while on the other, exhorting 10 Downing Street to refrain from joining the US, had the latter decided to molest Iran.

During an interview with the BBC (BBC World TV Service, Wednesday, October, 30), Saud Al-Faisal, the Saudi Foreign Secretary said that, the region cannot tolerate another war, as another war in the region would devastate the region, and would have grave consequences on the entire World. He was basically, referring to oil supply via the Iranian-dominated Hormuz Strait.
Currently, Crude oil price is close to a hundred dollar per barrel (albeit, the war has yet not been launched). One could envisage how even higher a barrel would be, had the war erupted.

One presumes, as do many that, the unprecedented size of delegate in King Abdullah's visit to London, including businesses and investments representatives signifies the need to keep the Arab Gulf region safe and prosperous. Especially, the UK has massive economic interests in the Arab Gulf region. Plus, the UK has signed a long term $75 billion Al-Yamama controversial arm supply contract with Saudi Arabia. As a result, a further war would expectedly, disturb such a valuable deal to the UK. Being aware of that, the Saudi visit played well on this British concern.

Observably, King Abdulla' visit came after nearly, seven months of other GCC key member states allies to the US and the GCC declaration that, they would not support another war in the region against Iran. Apparently, the Arab Gulfians came to terms more than any time in the past that, the US whether in Iran's case or as regard to other files in the Middle East, had ferociously, been selective, biased and prejudiced in favor of Israel and of its addiction to the Arab Gulf oil. Subsequently, GCC Arab Gulf states' resentment to another war the region and against Iran is now gathering momentum.
III. Months of Awareness-Buildup:

Noticeably, it took Arab Gulf region of the GCC nearly, eight months (8 months) to develop an awareness to the tense reactions between Iran an the US. Though, since March this year, has the US been carrying out an enormous military exercise in the Arab Gulf region seemingly, because of already signed agreements, Arab Gulf states had increasingly, been manifesting an opposition to strike at Iran by the US from its lands or seas.

Ironically, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), whose three most strategic islands are still occupied by Iran since the early 1970s, had been the second GCC state to proclaim it would not play a part in any plan to hit Iran. Strikingly, enough the state Qatar which harbors the Pentagon's Central Command headquarters, the huge Al-Sailiyya military base, the massive al-Udeid Air Base and 6,500 US troops, was the first to declare it would not allow an assault to be taken place on Iran from the US Qatar-hosted-military basis.
Additionally, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) whose members are those all the six states of the Arab Gulf region i.e., Bahrain Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has demonstrated all its members' desire not to engage in any likely, US provocative action against Iran.

According to the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center (see the Center's website) that, the United States, up to the month of March 28, 2007 kept about 40,000 soldiers, including marines in the Arab Gulf region. This figure, according to the Center's counting, consists of 25,000 in Kuwait, 3,000 in Bahrain, 1,300 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and a few hundred in Oman and Saudi Arabia. The center didn't include 6,500 US troops in Qatar. These figures are believed to have increased since then, despite the GCC's rhetoric, which has arguably, not been taken somehow seriously, by the US.
Furthermore, Bahrain has almost entirely, the only but the largest US naval presence, apparently, in the entire Middle East. The US keeps the Fifth Fleet and an estimated 127 ships, amongst other naval forces in the island.

From its Bahrain-based naval basis, the US Navy presumably, carried out earlier this year, its major display of naval power in the Arab Gulf regional water since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. 15 ships, 125 aircraft and 13,000 sailors were said to have taken part in an exercise a few dozen miles off Iran's shore. The military exercises aimed at showing "the commitment of the US to stability and security in the region," said Rear Adm. Kevin Quinn, commander of Strike Group Three, which includes the USS John C. Stennis.

"We're not looking for any kind of confrontation with Iran," said Navy Lt. Cmdr. Charlie Brown. "The purpose of the exercise is to ensure that no one miscalculates about our commitment to security and stability in the Persian Gulf (Arab Gulf region)." Such a statement quite often is perceived by many as US treating Arab Gulf region of the GCC as a US backyard.

Nevertheless, even US traditional allies clarified more than once that, they reject to be used as tools to serve others' interests in the Arab Gulf region and accordingly, they don't want to be caught in the middle of a conflict between the US and Iran, had the situation deteriorated. "We have assured the brothers in Iran ... that we are not a party in its dispute with the United States," said Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyana, the president of the UAE in a statement circulated by the Emirates news agency WAM. "We will not allow any force to use our territories for military, security and espionage activities against Iran." The UAE "refuses to use its territorial lands, air or waters for aggression against any other country," Khalifa emphasized.

If words match deeds, such a situation is bound to create serious strategic difficulties to the US Air Force. This means the US wouldn't be capable to fly intelligence missions over Iran with its squadron of U-2 and Global Hawk spy planes based at al-Thafra Air Base near the UAE political capital, Abu Dhabi. (AP, March 29)

Professor, Dr. Ali Al-Hail, Professor of Mass Communication, Twice Fulbright

Award Winner, Fulbright Visiting Scholar and Board Member of AUSACE, ASC,
IABD, NEBAA, BEA, IMDA and EAJMC American Associations.

Can be cotacted via alhailali@yahoo.com