Opinion Editorials, June 2007
June 2007 Opinion Editorial Links
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Will the Nights of Lebanon Become Even Darker?
By Salim Nazzal
ccun.org, June 13, 2007
It has been rumoured that Suleiman Frangiyeh, the president of Lebanon from 1970 to 1976, has prohibited the song of the Lebanese singer Fauruz: The Sad Nights of the North (Layali Al Shimal Al Hazine) from being broadcast on Lebanese Radio. The reason Frangiyeh cites for this prohibition was that since he is a proud Lebanese from the Northern town Zgharta, he was not happy that The Nights of the North is viewed in the song as sad. Yet the paradox is that during his period of presidency, the civil war was erupted which lasted 15 years and was to be the longest civil war in the history of the Middle East.
Today, dark clouds are gathering over the skies of Lebanon in a way many observers liken to the dark clouds of 1975. The general attitude is that Lebanese political leaders are not responding to the new challenges with enough seriousness. In the opinion of most Lebanese, the old questions about the national government and the sharing of political power, has become pigtails compared with the new challenge of combating the fundamental Islamic group known as Fateh al Islam. The clashes, which have entered its fourth week and the wave of explosions which hit several areas in the country, has opened the eyes of the Lebanese that the dangers are much more threatening than it was assumed. Even if many Lebanese voices were heard in the past months warning against the “Iraqization” of Lebanon, many wanted to believe that the Lebanese who experienced the horror of civil war will not fall easily into this “Iraqization.” Yet the last few weeks’ events have proved that such warnings were not without reason.
On the light of this crisis more voices appears calling for a deeper review for the Lebanese policy. The Lebanese writer Tony François calls for a Lebanese Vinograd committee for reviewing the policy of the Lebanese government from sixties and until now. Tatal salman warns against adopting the military solution because it threatens the unity of the army which is the only united institution when all other institutions are paralysed.
In the current confusion with the political scene in Lebanon, the major question is: where do we find the command thread of the current crisis? Or which problem should be addressed first having in mind the latest dramatic developments. The Lebanese opposition is still insisting that the national government is the key to the solution, while it seems that the crisis is becoming much more complicated than the formation of the national government. The pro-government forces which invested its good ties with the USA and France succeeded in forming the international tribunal in the UN, did until now little to satisfy the opposition demands of not making Lebanon a sphere of influence for the USA policy in the Middle East which is the major source of fear for the opposition. In the time being many observers in Lebanon tend to think that the challenge the Lebanese army faces in the North of Lebanon will have an impact on the future solution to the current crisis. Despite the existence of various approaches towards solving the Nahr al Bared crisis, some observers think that the Lebanese army’s "rational" way of handling the crisis has won the support of all the Lebanese public, a position which consolidates the position of Michel Suleiman, the Lebanese army leader and pushed his name in the front of the list of the Maronite candidates for presidency in the coming September. And despite that this extremist group has taken the refugee camp as its bastion later events have demonstrated that they have no sympathy for its ideology among the Palestinian refugees in the camp. Therefore it was a wise policy that a clear distinction (at the theoretical level at least) was made between attacking the Palestinian refugee camp and attacking an extremist group. Yet one can not turn a blind eye on the reports which talk about mistreating Palestinians on the Lebanese army check points despite the repeated Lebanese position that the conflict is not with Palestinians.
Despite the fact that there is no agreement among the Lebanese political parties about the president who resides the Baabde Palace, or whether the new president will be made in Lebanon or outside Lebanon the names of Jan Ubeid, a previous foreign minister, Raid Salami, the Governor of the Central Bank and the leader of the army are the most circulated names among the very many candidates for the presidency. The worst scenario which most Lebanese fear is that the LaHood presidency will expire without there being an election to replace him and that the country would fall into chaos. A situation similar to that of the 80s when president Jemayel term expired before another election for a successor could be held. The outcome of that period was the formation of two governments each claiming to be the legal government.
In the meantime, the mobile wave of explosions are striking the country which if added to the political explosives develop a dark picture in a small country that seeks to survive in a turbulent Middle East.The question of how are things going to develop in the near future is not easy to predict, yet what is sure is if the political leaders of Lebanon continue political games with the same traditional methods it is doubtful that the civil peace will be restored; this would be a receipt for even more darker clouds over the skies of Lebanon.
The author is a Palestinian Norwegian historian and political analyst. Can be contacted at.gibran44@hotmail.com
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