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Tunisian President Sacks Prime Minister, Suspends Parliament, Ending Arab Spring Only Democratic Government

July 27, 2021

 

Supporters of the Tunisian President, July 25, 2021	Speaker of the Tunisian Parliament, Rashid El-Ghannoushi, on Twitter: What President Qays Si-'ayyid did is a coup against the revolution and the Constitution. Al-Nahda supporters and the Tunisian people will defend the revolution (July 25, 2021).

 

Kais Saied/Antony Blinken phone talk: keenness to respect legitimacy, rights and freedoms

27/07/2021 09:46, TUNIS/Tunisia

Tunisian Agence Press (TAP)-

President of the Republic Kais Saied on Monday had a phone conversation with US State Secretary Antony Blinken.

On this occasion, President Kais Saied reaffirmed "keenness to respect the legitimacy, rights and freedoms, saying the measures taken fit into application of Article 80 of the Constitution and aim at safeguarding the State and achieving social peace."

Quoted in a press release of the Presidency of the Republic, Antony Blinken pointed out his country's willingness to continue to foster Tunisia-US partnership relations in various fields and support its economy and fight against COVID-19.

https://www.tap.info.tn/en/Portal-Top-News-EN/14236404-kais-saied-antony

Organizations and trade unions announce their support for people's demands

27/07/2021 18:05, TUNIS/Tunisia

(TAP) -

Organizations and trade unions have announced their support for the demands of the people expressed during their peaceful movements, after the failure of the current government to find solutions to the health, economic, social and political crisis.

"The revision of policies and economic and social choices is, today, necessary under threat of creating the same crisis that has continued for years," they said.

In a joint statement issued Tuesday by the National Union of Tunisian Journalists (SNJT), they called on the President of the Republic to set a roadmap according to a clear timetable that does not exceed thirty days, involving all civil forces.

It should be based on urgent issues, such as the fight against Covid-19, the revision of the electoral law and the political system and the fight against corruption.

The signatories also warned against any illegitimate and unjustified extension of the suspension of the activities of state institutions, stressing the need to respect the one-month deadline mentioned in the Constitution.

The unions and organizations have, on another level, called on citizens to exercise self-control and not to be drawn into violence, advocating to preserve the country's institutions and the interests of the people.

Moreover, they urged the political forces to place the general interest above all other considerations and to adopt a dialogue on conflicting issues.

A joint working committee will be formed to monitor developments in the political situation in the country and to develop a roadmap, in collaboration with civil society organizations before submitting it to the President of the Republic and public opinion.

The signatories of this statement are the SNJT, the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT), the National Bar Association of Tunisia, the Tunisian Association of Democratic Women (ATFD), the Association of Tunisian judges (AMT), the Tunisian League of Human Rights (LTDH) and the Tunisian Forum of Economic and Social Rights (FTDES).

https://www.tap.info.tn/en/Portal-Politics/14238205-organisations-and

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Tunisia's PM sacked after violent Covid protests

BBC, July 27, 2021

Tunisia's president has sacked the PM and suspended parliament, after violent mass protests nationwide on Sunday.

Anger over the government's handling of a massive recent spike in Covid cases has added to general unrest over the nation's economic and social turmoil.

President Kais Saied, who was elected in 2019, announced he was taking over.

His supporters erupted in celebration, but opponents in parliament immediately accused him of staging a coup. Clashes among rival groups continued on Monday.

They threw stones at each other outside the legislature, which has been barricaded by troops, who have also prevented workers from entering some government buildings.

Mr Saied, an independent, has had a long-standing feud with the man he has removed, PM Hichem Mechichi. Mr Mechichi has the backing of the largest party in parliament, Ennahda.

Tunisia's revolution in 2011 is often held up as the sole success of the Arab Spring revolts across the region, but it has not led to stability economically or politically.

The recent coronavirus surge has fuelled long-standing public frustration. The health minister was sacked last week after a bungled vaccination drive.

Statesman or dictator?

On Sunday thousands of people across Tunisia demonstrated against the PM and Ennahda, the moderate Islamist ruling party.

Its local headquarters in the south-western city of Touzeur were set on fire.

One protester in Tunis, Lamia Meftahi, told Reuters news agency this was "the happiest moment since the revolution".

Another in the town of Gafsa told AFP news agency the president had "shown himself to be a true statesman", but a second resident there said: "These fools are celebrating the birth of a new dictator."

In the early hours of Monday, the speaker of parliament, Rached Ghannouchi, who leads Ennahda, tried to get into the legislature in Tunis. He was blocked by those who supported Mr Saied's move, and responded with a sit-down protest with his own loyalists.

Later on Monday, Al Jazeera TV, which has been viewed as sympathetic to Ennahda, said security forces had raided its offices in Tunis, unplugging all equipment and telling staff to leave.

On Sunday, in a televised address, Mr Saied said: "We have taken these decisions... until social peace returns to Tunisia and until we save the state."

He later joined the celebrating crowds in Tunis.

President Saied also vowed to respond to further violence with military force.

"I warn any who think of resorting to weapons… and whoever shoots a bullet, the armed forces will respond with bullets," he said.

Acute power struggle

Analysis by Rana Jawad, BBC North Africa correspondent

To many, it feels like fresh hope after a year of chaotic governance - to others a move that is constitutionally questionable, with potentially destabilising ramifications and far-reaching consequences.

The events are largely linked to an acute power struggle between the presidency, the PM and the speaker of parliament.

Was this a power grab by the president or a temporary move to get the country back on track? And will his political opponents mobilise their own support on the streets? If so, to what end?

Key to how all this plays out will be how quickly a new prime minister is appointed - and a new plan communicated on moving forward.

Coup accusations

In Tunisia, both the president and parliament are elected by popular vote.

Under the constitution, the president oversees only the military and foreign affairs, but Mr Saied has long been in conflict with Mr Mechichi.

Mr Saied has said he will now govern alongside a new PM, with parliament suspended for 30 days.

media captionYoung Tunisians have been protesting as they strive to live in and shape the post-revolution dream.

The president cited Article 80 of the constitution for his actions, saying it allowed him to suspend parliament if it was in "imminent danger".

But the opposition disputes this, and Tunisia's legal and political framework is unclear. The 2014 constitution calls for a special court to be set up to decide disagreements like this, but it has not been established.

As the largest party in parliament, Ennahda has the right to nominate the PM. It denounced the president's move.

Speaker Ghannouchi accused Mr Saied of mounting "a coup against the revolution and constitution" and called on the Tunisian people to defend them both.

Two other parties, Heart of Tunisia and Karama, echoed the coup accusations.

Ennahda denounced attacks on its offices, blaming "criminal gangs" who were trying to "seed chaos and destruction".

Covid flare-up

Coronavirus-related deaths reached a record for the country last week, passing 300 in one 24-hour period. Tunisia has one of the highest per capita death rates in the world.

Vaccinations have been slow: only 7% of the 11.7 million population are fully vaccinated.

The government attempted to speed up vaccination by opening it to all over-18s during the Eid al-Adha holiday. However, the effort descended into chaos, with stampedes, shortages of supplies, and incidents of violence.

The PM sacked the health minister - an ally of the president - prompting Mr Saied to instruct the military to take over management of the coronavirus crisis.

But Covid is only one factor in the unrest. Tunisia has had nine governments since the 2011 revolution, many of them short-lived or fractured.

Deep-rooted problems of unemployment and crumbling state infrastructure that were behind the uprising have never been resolved.

Tunisia now has budget deficits and debt repayment issues that could require a new loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

But that could hurt Tunisians with the loss of state jobs and reduced subsidies on goods.

Tunisia's PM sacked after violent Covid protests - BBC News

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"Break with populism and dare to implement reforms to avoid scenario of getting stuck in crisis," Moez Labidi.

27/07/2021 17:43, TUNIS/Tunisia

Interview By Imen Gharb-TAP -

The decision of the President of the Republic to suspend the parliament and dismiss Prime Minister, Hichem Mechichi is far from surprising, because history always teaches us that the deterioration of the fundamentals of the economy and the status quo in terms of reforms are often threatening to the democratic edifice, said Tuesday, economist Moez Labidi, in an interview with TAP.  

Labidi calls, however, to seize this opportunity to break with populism, impose the rule of law and dare to implement the reforms, by reviving the economic pragmatism. Any delay will, according to him, further bog down the country in the crisis and precipitate the scenario of a default and civil disobedience.

/ / Immediate impact

According to Labidi, the immediate impact of this decision are those that were felt on Monday, July 26, 2021, the sharp decline in the stock market index and the widening of the spread (risk premium) of Tunisian securities traded on the international market. For example, for the Tunisian loan in euro that matures in 2023, the yield of sovereign securities of Tunisia has increased from 10.2% Friday, July 23, 2021, to 12.63% Monday at the end of the day, an increase in the spread exceeding 240 basis points.

The third immediate consequence is the stoppage of negotiations with the IMF, which are already experiencing a huge delay. This is due to the fact that in order to negotiate, the IMF needs a stable political climate, a functioning government and a functioning parliament.

/ / Short-term consequences

In the short term, Moez Labidi believes that the announcement effect of the formation of a new government, and more specifically the profile of the new Prime Minister and its ability to implement the necessary economic reforms, will weigh in the capital confidence and would be instrumental in reassuring the domestic and foreign economic actors.

In addition, he added, this decision can only delay the process of drafting the supplementary bill of finance and consequently, the signing of the agreement with the IMF and the mobilisation of resources from international lenders. This situation is blocking access to external financing and increasing pressure on local financing, with its attendant crowding-out effects on private investment.

As far as rating agencies are concerned, the risk of a further downgrade (Fitch: from B- to CCC+ / Moody's from B3 to Caa1) cannot be ruled out if political instability persists and if pressure on foreign exchange reserves becomes more of a threat to the sustainability of the debt.

In this context, our interlocutor believes that recourse to the international financial market, even through guarantees, becomes inaccessible. The U.S. guarantees, obtained in the past, were largely justified by support for a fledgling democracy, which would no longer be the case with the latest decisions concentrating all powers in the hands of the President of the Republic.

Labidi also believes that the pressures on the balance of payments will increase, with the negative impact of political instability on foreign direct investment and on the tourism sector already heavily affected by the coronavirus crisis.

In spite of all this, Labidi evokes an important positive point of the last decisions of the President of the Republic which let predict a certain will to impose the rule of law. According to him, if this will is materialized, it could clean up the business climate, by fighting the economy of rent what would generate a competitive business climate favourable to the investment and would allow eliminating the speculation in the circuits of distribution, which will favour a better control of the prices. It would also allow to fight the informal sector and to improve the governance of the administration.
/ / Medium and long term impacts

In the medium and long term, Labidi believes that two scenarios are possible, a "crisis exit scenario" and a "crisis stagnation scenario".

The first scenario is that of rapid normalisation. This scenario is only possible through the formation of a government that shines by its competence and that succeeds in having a favourable response from the ARP, which should resume its activity after a month. This climate of confidence could help trigger a dynamic of reforms, necessary for the country to return to inclusive growth.

The second scenario, that of the crisis getting bogged down, will be caused by the persistence of institutional vagueness and the absence of a roadmap outlining political and economic priorities. This scenario could tip Tunisia into a situation of payment default and civil disobedience that will be orchestrated by "the disappointed of the change", that is to say by those who took to the streets on July 25 to celebrate the change.

The other point that worries our interlocutor is the excess of populism in the discourse and the lack of vision on the political and economic levels, which would push to avoid the unavoidable reforms that have become painful by force of delay, and which would thus feed the unsustainability of the debt.

//Good management of social expectations 

For Moez Labidi, the context requires vigilance and courage to :

- Desert the populist discourse that succeeds in mobilising the street and earns points in the polls but precipitates the scenario of a crisis of liquidity and solvency in the medium and long term, because of the inability of this discourse to address the origins of the real evils of the country;
- To select a government team on the basis of competence and far from cronyism;
- Dare to address the youth with a language of truth that would engage them on the path of work, creation and innovation far from pompous slogans;
- To manage social expectations well and to be effective in the face of the collateral damage of the health crisis, prioritizing social support to prevent the "unsustainability of the debt" from becoming "social unsustainability", which leads to civil disobedience. A social deception that will end up undermining the capital of trust generated by the "historic moment of July 25, 2021".

https://www.tap.info.tn/en/Portal-Economy/14238044--break-with  

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Arabic commentary by Lutfi Alarabi Al-Sanoosi:

الصّحافة: الرئيس يسعى الى خلق أمر واقع جديد...!! (essahafa.tn)

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