Editorial Note: The following news reports are summaries from original sources. They may also include corrections of Arabic names and political terminology. Comments are in parentheses.

 
US-Russia Agree to Syria Peace Talks to End the Civil War, Before Spreading to Lebanon and Jordan

May 9, 2013

 

Syria war could push Lebanon, Jordan into slump

By Dominic Evans

BEIRUT | Thu May 9, 2013 11:25am EDT

(Reuters) -

The economic devastation of Syria's war could drive the economies of neighboring Lebanon and Jordan into reverse, Syria's former deputy prime minister said on Thursday.

Pointing to the sharp slowdown in Lebanon's economic growth since the start of Syria's conflict in 2011, from 7 percent to barely 2 percent, Abdallah al-Dardari said there was a direct link to the ever-deepening economic collapse in Syria.

Jordan's economic growth had remained steadier, between 2 and 3 percent, but was still affected by the Syrian turmoil and was below the level needed to provide enough jobs for its fast-growing population, he said.

The Syrian conflict "has a very destabilizing effect," said Dardari, now chief economist for the regional United Nations body ESCWA. "It is in the interest of the whole region for Syria to regain peace and quiet, and start rebuilding."

Dardari said Syria's economy had already shrunk between 35 to 40 percent and would fall 60 percent from its level at the start of the uprising if the fighting continued.

Every one percentage point of economic slowdown in Syria produced a 0.2 percentage point slowdown in Lebanon, he said.

With Syria's economy still collapsing "we can speak about negative growth in Lebanon and Jordan if the situation in Syria continues as it is today for the next two years," he told Reuters in an interview at the U.N.'s central Beirut offices.

The former deputy prime minister for economic affairs was dismissed by President Bashar al-Assad in a cabinet reshuffle shortly after the uprising erupted. He has since been working at the U.N. on plans for Syria's post-conflict reconstruction.

SYRIA CRISIS HITS TOURISM, TRADE

Economists in Lebanon say domestic factors also played a part in the country's economic slowdown, including the political uncertainty when former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri's government was toppled in early 2011.

But Dardari said the Syrian crisis was hitting tourism, trade, development assistance from Gulf Arab oil states and even remittance levels from Lebanon's huge expatriate population, who worry about security in their homeland.

The flood of cheap Syrian labor into Lebanon could also drag down average salaries by 14 percent because of the increase in labor supply of hundreds of thousands of refugees and laborers arriving in a country of just 4 million.

Lebanon's Central Bank governor Riad Salameh, speaking at a conference in Beirut on Thursday, agreed that the Syrian conflict was weighing on Lebanon's performance but reiterated his forecast of 2 percent growth this year.

The impact on Jordan would be slightly less because its economy was less tied to Syria's, Dardari said. "However you can see in the last five to 10 years Syria and Jordan dramatically improved their trade relations and bilateral investments, and have tremendous plans for further integration."

"That has all stopped now".

Dardari's prediction was gloomier than the IMF, which said in March it expected Jordan's economic growth to accelerate above 3 percent, reflecting an increase in government capital spending, higher domestic consumption and a recovery in exports.

However Syria faced almost unimaginable challenges even if the fighting were to stop tomorrow, Dardari said. He put the economic cost at $70-$80 billion, including $28 billion to rebuild 1.2 million houses and provide them with infrastructure.

The country would need 30 million metric tons of cement a year - more than three times pre-crisis quantities - to repair damaged homes and keep up with the need for new housing, he said. "Thirty million metric tons of cement requires more than 1 billion cubic meters of water. We don't have that much water."

Sustained fighting on the other hand could only bring greater calamity, including staggering levels of unemployment and absolute poverty, he said.

"Over the next few years, if the fighting continues, we will have to look at it as a disaster zone rather than a normal economy functioning according to economics as we know it."

(Editing by Jon Hemming)

 

U.S., Russia seek new Syria peace talks; rebels skeptical

By Arshad Mohammed and Erika Solomon

MOSCOW/BEIRUT | Wed May 8, 2013 7:13pm EDT

U.S., Russia seek new Syria peace talks; rebels skeptical | Reuters

(Reuters) - Russia and the United States agreed to seek new peace talks with both sides to end Syria's civil war, but opposition leaders were skeptical on Wednesday of an initiative they fear might let President Bashar al-Assad hang on to power.

Mindful the conflict may be far from over, Britain has urged fellow European Union states to lift an arms embargo, arguing it would strengthen those rebel groups favored by Western powers.

Visiting Moscow after Israel bombed sites near Damascus and as President Barack Obama also faces renewed calls to arm the rebels, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said late on Tuesday that Russia agreed to work on a conference in the coming weeks.

An East-West disagreement that has seen some of the frostiest exchanges between Washington and Moscow since the Cold War has deadlocked U.N. efforts to settle the Syrian conflict for two years, so any rapprochement could bring an international common front closer than it has been for many months.

Israeli air strikes, reports of the use of chemical weapons and the increasing prominence of al Qaeda-linked militants among the rebels have all added to international urgency for an end to a war that has killed more than 70,000 people.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday welcomed the announcement by Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

"The Secretary-General and Joint Special Representative (Lakhdar) Brahimi have asserted from the outset their conviction that a negotiated political solution is the only way to end this prolonged and ever-deepening crisis, the U.N. statement said.

But with Syria's factional and sectarian hatreds more entrenched than ever, it is far from clear the warring parties are ready to negotiate with each other. Most opposition figures have ruled out talks unless Assad and his inner circle are excluded from any future transitional government.

"I believe the opposition would find it impossible to hold talks over a government that still had Assad at its head," said Samir Nashar of the opposition's umbrella National Coalition.

"Before making any decisions, we need to know what Assad's role would be. That point has been left vague, we believe intentionally so, in order to try to drag the opposition into talks before a decision on that is made."

In the past, the United States has backed opposition demands that Assad be excluded from any future government, while Russia has said that must be for Syrians to decide, a formula the opposition believes could be used to keep Assad in power.

Opposition members said they were concerned by comments from Kerry in Moscow, echoing Russia, that the decision on who takes part in a transitional government should be left to Syrians.

"Syrians are worried that the United States is advancing its own interests with Russia, using the blood and suffering of the Syrian people," said National Coalition member Ahmed Ramadan.

Inside Syria, where rebel groups have disparate views, a military commander, Abdeljabbar al-Oqaidi, told Reuters, "If the regime were present, I do not believe we would want to attend."

There was no immediate response from the Syrian government, which has offered reforms but dismisses those fighting it as terrorists and puppets of outside powers - the West, Turkey and Arab states opposed to Assad's ally Iran.

EU ARMS BAN

If fears of an escalation of the war are driving new peace moves, they have also set some Western powers looking again at their military options. Washington said last week it was rethinking its opposition to arming the rebels, and it emerged on Wednesday that Britain had been lobbying the EU to let it do so, too.

Several EU governments are resisting French and British efforts to get the embargo lifted, concerned the move could escalate the two-year-old conflict.

In a paper seen by Reuters, London suggested ways the ban could be amended to get arms to the National Coalition. Existing sanctions expire on June 1. With France, the other main military power in the bloc, Britain is trying to persuade Spain, Austria, Sweden and others to ease opposition to arming the rebels.

But with the prospect of the conflict spilling across a volatile region central to global energy supplies and transit routes, major powers also have, as Kerry told Putin on Tuesday, "very significant common interests" in pushing for a settlement.

"The alternative," Kerry later told a joint news conference with Lavrov, "is that Syria heads closer to an abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos".

Both sides fear a failed state in Syria could provide a base for hostile militants willing to strike around the world.

Last June, at a conference in Geneva, Washington and Moscow agreed on the need for a transitional government in Syria, but diplomacy has foundered since then, and the mediator of the Geneva conference, former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, quit in despair, saying differences among powers were too wide.

Kerry said the conference might be held as early as this month, although no venue has been set.

Russia, backed by China, has vetoed three U.N. Security Council resolutions hostile to Assad. Alarmed at Western powers' use of a U.N. mandate to oust Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Moscow and Beijing are wary of such interference in their own affairs.

RISK OF POWER VACUUM

Recent developments have focused minds on the risks of wider war in the Middle East.

The White House said last month that Assad's troops probably used chemical weapons - which Obama has called a "red line" that would mandate a strong, if unspecified, response. The government and rebels each accuse the other of using poison gas, a charge both sides deny. British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday there was evidence Assad's forces "continue" to use sarin gas.

But despite pleading from the opposition, Western leaders have been reluctant to weigh in by arming the rebels, especially as Islamist fighters have pledged allegiance to al Qaeda, highlighting the risk to the West that a poorly managed change of leadership in Syria could bring hostile militants to power.

Israeli air strikes in recent days - which Israeli officials said hit Iranian arms headed for Assad and Tehran's Lebanese allies Hezbollah - underlined the risk of cross-border conflict.

The violence has inflamed a confrontation between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims in the Middle East, with Shi'ite Iran supporting Assad, and Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia backing the rebels.

Tehran warned of unforeseeable consequences if Assad were toppled and said only a political deal would avert a regional conflagration: "God forbid, if there is any vacuum in Syria, these negative consequences will affect all countries," Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said. "No one knows what will happen."

Diplomatic sources in Moscow made clear the latest push for peace was being driven by growing alarm following the Israeli air raids, the possibility of foreign arms pouring into Syria and the possible use of chemical weapons.

Moscow and Washington have also signaled they want to improve cooperation on security matters since the Boston Marathon bombings, which U.S. officials suspect was carried out by ethnic Chechens who had lived in Russia. U.S. officials said FBI chief Robert Mueller had been in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss the bombings, but gave no details.

In a further sign of Washington's efforts to improve ties with Russia, Kerry avoided any sharp public criticism of Moscow's human rights record when he met civil rights activists in the Russian capital on Wednesday before his departure.

In Syria, Internet connections and phones to the outside world were restored after a day-long blackout that officials put down to a technical fault on a cable but which opposition activists said was deliberately imposed for military operations.

(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman, Arshad Mohammed, Timothy Heritage, Alexei Anishchuk and Steve Gutterman in Moscow, and Lou Charbonneau at the United Nations; Writing by Alastair Macdonald, Timothy Heritage and Peter Graff; Editing by Will Waterman and Peter Cooney

 

U.S., Russia push for rapid talks to end Syria carnage

By Thomas Grove and Erika Solomon

MOSCOW/BEIRUT | Wed May 8, 2013 6:44am EDT

U.S., Russia push for rapid talks to end Syria carnage | Reuters

(Reuters) - Russia and the United States agreed to bury their differences over Syria and to try to convene international talks with both sides in the civil war to end the carnage that is inflaming the Middle East.

Visiting Moscow after Israel bombed targets near Damascus and as President Barack Obama faces new calls to arm the rebels, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Russia had agreed to try to arrange a conference as early as this month involving both President Bashar al-Assad's government and his opponents.

An East-West disagreement that has seen some of the frostiest exchanges between Washington and Moscow since the Cold War has deadlocked U.N. efforts to settle the Syrian conflict for two years, so any rapprochement could bring an international common front closer than it has been for many months.

But with Syria's factional and sectarian hatreds more entrenched than ever after 70,000 deaths, it is far from clear the warring parties are ready to negotiate. There was no immediate comment from the Syrian government, which has offered reforms but dismisses those fighting it as "terrorists".

The late hour of the announcement in Moscow - Kerry was kept waiting for three hours by President Vladimir Putin - also meant leaders of the Western-backed opposition umbrella group the Syrian National Coalition were not available for comment. Many on the body have insisted Assad's exit is a condition for talks.

Inside the country, where rebel groups are numerous and have disparate views, a military commander in the north, Abdeljabbar al-Oqaidi, told Reuters he would want to know details of the U.S.-Russian plan before taking a view. "But," he added, "if the regime were present, I do not believe we would want to attend."

Alarmed at the prospect of the conflict spilling across an already volatile and economically important region, however, the major powers have, as Kerry told Putin on Tuesday, "very significant common interests" in pushing for a settlement.

"The alternative," Kerry later told a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, "is that Syria heads closer to an abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos.

"The alternative is that the humanitarian crisis will grow. The alternative is that there may be even a break-up of Syria."

GENEVA AGREEMENT

Last year at a conference in Geneva in June, Washington and Moscow agreed on the need for a transitional government in Syria but left open the question of what would happen to Assad, whose departure Obama has called for but which Russia, accusing the West of meddling, says should be a matter for Syrians only.

Rejecting a characterization of Moscow as the protector of Assad, to whose army it has been a major arms suppliers since the days of his father's rule, Lavrov said Russia was not concerned by the fate of "certain" individuals.

"The task now is to convince the government and all the opposition groups ... to sit at the negotiating table," he said.

Kerry said the conference should be held "as soon as is practical - possibly and hopefully by the end of the month". Neither he nor Lavrov said where it might take place.

Kerry said there would be "a growing crescendo of nations who will want to push for a peaceful resolution, rather than the chaos that comes with the break-up of a country".

Kerry said the decision on who takes part in any transitional government should be left to the Syrians.

Lavrov said the aim would be "to persuade the government and the opposition together ... to fully implement the Geneva communique" on creating a transitional government.

Russia, backed by China which shares its mistrust of Western enthusiasm for toppling some autocrats, has refused appeals to consider sanctions on Assad, vetoing three U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning his crackdown on opposition groups.

ASSAD DEFIANT

Recent developments have helped focus minds on the risks of wider war in the Middle East: intelligence reports that Assad's troops may have used chemical weapons had renewed calls for Obama to arm the rebels or even offer U.S. forces; Islamist fighters pledging allegiance to al Qaeda has highlighted how some of the rebels are also hostile to the West; and Israeli air strikes said to target Iranian arms headed for Lebanon's Hezbollah have underlined the risk of escalation.

In what appeared to be another sign of the country's travails, Internet connections between Syria and the outside world were cut off on Tuesday, according to data from Google Inc and other global Internet companies.

Google's Transparency Report pages showed traffic to Google services pages from Syria suddenly stopping shortly before 3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT). Most websites within Syria were rendered unreachable as well, other experts said, as the county appeared to shut itself off.

REBELS TAKE U.N. PEACEKEEPERS HOSTAGE

Speaking before the announcement in Moscow, Assad was quoted by a sympathetic Lebanese television channel as saying he would defy Israel, the United States and Arab powers who oppose him.

"The recent Israeli aggressions expose the extent of the complicity between the Israeli occupier, regional countries and the West in promoting the current events in Syria," he said.

"The Syrian people and their heroic army ... are capable of confronting this Israeli adventure, which represents one of the faces of terrorism that is targeting Syria every day."

While showing little desire to embroil U.S. forces in Syria after winding down engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama has rejected criticism that he might back out of a commitment to act if Assad crossed a "red line" of using chemical weapons.

On Tuesday, he pointed to the killing of Osama bin Laden and the toppling of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, brought down by a U.S.-backed rebellion, as evidence that "we typically follow through on our commitments". It is still unclear if chemical weapons were used.

The chaos in Syria, where a fifth of the 25 million population has been driven from their homes, was underlined by the latest incident of rebels taking U.N. peacekeepers hostage on the ceasefire line with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon strongly condemned the incident and called for the four Filipinos' immediate release. They were detained as they patrolled close to an area where 21 Filipino observers were held for three days in March.

The Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade said the peacekeepers were seized for their own safety during clashes in the area.

More widely, the violence in a religiously and ethnically diverse country at the heart of the Arab and Muslim world has inflamed a confrontation between Iran and its fellow Shi'ite allies like Hezbollah on the one hand and the Sunni Arab powers, including U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, who back the Sunni rebels against Assad's Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam.

Iran, at daggers drawn with Israel and the West over its nuclear program, warned of unforeseeable consequences if Assad were toppled and said only a political settlement to Syria's civil war would avoid a regional conflagration.

"God forbid, if there is any vacuum in Syria, these negative consequences will affect all countries," Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said in Jordan. "No one knows what will happen."

(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman and Arshad Mohammed, Timothy Heritage, Alexei Anishchuk and Steve Gutterman in Moscow; Writing by Alastair Macdonald; Editing by Alison Williams and Mohammad Zargham)