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U.S. Politics

Santorum Win in Michigan Could Be Chaos for the Republican Party

By John Whitesides

Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:23am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

The Republican presidential race faces a potential turning point on Tuesday in contests in Arizona and Michigan, where upstart Rick Santorum threatens to plunge an already unpredictable nominating battle into chaos.

Mitt Romney, the former front-runner and presumed nominee, and Santorum are in a close race in Michigan, the state where Romney was raised and his father was an auto executive and popular governor.

A Santorum win there would be a devastating blow to Romney, turning lingering doubts about his ability to win the allegiance of Republican primary voters into a deep panic in the party's senior ranks.

"If Santorum pulls off the upset in Michigan it turns the entire race on its head," said Republican Dan Schnur, an aide to Senator John McCain during his 2000 presidential bid. "There aren't going to be a lot of people who have much use for a front-runner who can't win his home state."

But Republicans worry about the general election viability of Santorum, a staunch conservative who has courted controversy with a burst of comments on social issues like birth control, pre-natal testing and women in the military.

Santorum's rise and Romney's weakness have sparked speculation about more contenders jumping into a Republican race that could last all the way to a brokered convention in August. The Michigan result could shift that speculation into overdrive.

"A Santorum win in Michigan takes all of the talk about a new candidate or a brokered convention and puts it on steroids," Republican strategist Todd Harris said.

If Romney pulls out a victory in Michigan and in Arizona, where he has a more comfortable lead in polls, he would regain command of the frequently shifting race but could still face a long nominating battle that could extend into June.

"It's hard to predict," Romney said on "Fox News Sunday" when asked how long the race might last. "I'm convinced I'm going to become the nominee. And we'll be willing to take however long it takes to get that job done."

The prospect of Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator who lost his re-election bid in 2006 by 18 percentage points, as the party's presidential nominee remains unfathomable to many in the Republican establishment.

Their worries deepened in the past month as Santorum put hot-button social issues at the forefront of his campaign, warning of the "dangers" of contraception, pre-natal testing and President Barack Obama's "phony theology."

A tape of a 2008 speech that surfaced this week showing Santorum claimed Satan was attacking U.S. institutions only made it worse. On Sunday, Santorum defended saying last year that a speech on the separation of church and state by President John F. Kennedy almost made him throw up.

Some Republicans worry that Santorum at the top of the ticket in the November 6 general election could put the emphasis on the wrong issues in a campaign they hope will focus on Obama's economic leadership. That could endanger more moderate Republicans farther down the ballot in toss-up states.

'A CAMPAIGN ABOUT CONTRACEPTIVES, GAYS AND SATAN?'

"Santorum as the party's nominee would really concern me as a northeast Republican," said Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire state chairman who supported former candidate Jon Huntsman in the state's primary and is now backing Romney.

"Do I really want a general election campaign that's about contraception, gay marriage, Satan's presence in society and Obama's theology? The answer is no," he said.

In Michigan, Romney's focus on his business experience as the former head of a private equity firm resonates with voters looking for improvement in the state's struggling economy.

"I believe that having the business skills is what we need. I don't know anybody else who has those skills," said Russ Tierney of Highland Township. "He seems to be gaining steam," he said of Romney.

Some recent polls show Romney, who has unleashed a flood of negative attack ads on Santorum, taking a slight lead in Michigan. He overcame what had been a big deficit after Santorum swept three contests in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado earlier in the month.

Romney also put Santorum on the defensive in an Arizona debate last week over his Senate votes for big spending bills and education reforms, raising the possibility Santorum's support could slip further ahead of Tuesday's vote.

After Tuesday, the Republican race quickly goes national with 22 contests in March, including 10 states on Super Tuesday on March 6. That could bring Romney's financial and organizational advantages to the fore.

But the Super Tuesday contests include conservative states like Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia, where former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is making a stand. They could give Romney's rivals enough momentum to extend the campaign.

"The opportunity for Romney to land some kind of knockout blow has passed," Cullen said.

"There is no incentive for Santorum or Gingrich to admit defeat and walk off the field until they have been thoroughly trounced in a bunch of states one after the other and really are out of money," he said.

Romney's campaign strategists say he can survive a loss in Michigan. They have planned for a race that extends through the final contests in June and on to the convention in Tampa, Florida, if necessary.

The new Republican delegate selection rules, which allocate delegates proportionally in many states, were designed to prolong the race. Romney senior adviser Ron Kaufman said the campaign put together its game plan with that idea in mind.

"You can win it easily or hard, but we wrote it knowing that it could very well end up in Tampa," Kaufman said. "The bottom line is you want to win it, but it is not as devastating as you guys want to make it out to be if we don't."

But if Romney is not strong enough to win the state where he was raised and his father forged a political legacy, questions will grow about exactly where he can put away his rivals.

"I do imagine there will be some panic if Romney loses," Cullen said. "It's not like Romney has made a mistake, or committed a career-ending gaffe. If he just can't win, with all the advantages and strengths he has, how does he make the argument better or more convincingly elsewhere?"

(Editing by Alistair Bell and Jackie Frank)

In Michigan, Mitt Romney faces day of reckoning

By Steve Holland

Michigan | Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:33am EST

SOUTHFIELD, Michigan (Reuters) -

Mitt Romney faces a day of reckoning on Tuesday when Michigan votes to either grant him a big victory in the Republican presidential nomination battle or hand him a humiliating defeat.

Romney was born and raised in Michigan and his father was a popular governor, but conservatives are threatening to deliver the state to Rick Santorum, who is running neck-and-neck with Romney in the polls in the final hours before voting begins.

Most Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. EST (midnight GMT).

Arizona votes as well on Tuesday and Romney has a comfortable lead there, aided by the man who beat him in the 2008 Republican presidential campaign, Arizona Senator John McCain.

All eyes are on Michigan because a victory for Santorum on what is essentially Romney's home turf would raise questions about Romney's candidacy a week before a defining day of the 2012 campaign, March 6, the "Super Tuesday" when 10 states hold contests.

"I am going to win in Michigan and I'm going to win across the country," Romney said on Monday.

His aides, contemplating the possibility of a defeat, believe Romney could survive a loss in Michigan should it occur because of this year's elongated nomination process.

"The bottom line is you want to win it but it is not as devastating as you guys want to make it out to be if we don't," said a senior Romney strategist.

Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, has made himself competitive in Michigan by pressing his conservative views on social issues and by spreading a blue-collar message about the need to rebuild the manufacturing base in the hard-hit Midwestern state.

"We've been traveling all over the state, and I'm really excited about the response. I think we're going to surprise a few people tomorrow night," Santorum said on Monday.

A Santorum win could upend the race and prompt the Republican establishment - concerned that Santorum's strong religious conservatism could make him unelectable - to search for a new candidate to join the race.

An unpredictable factor in Michigan was the ability of Democrats to vote in the Republican primary and try to thwart Romney by voting for Santorum, who many see as having little chance of defeating Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 election should he become the Republican nominee.

AUTO BAILOUTS

The Santorum campaign tried to encourage the crossover vote with a robocall urging Democrats to send a message to Romney because of his opposition to 2009 auto bailouts that kept thousands of Michigan workers employed.

The effort was quickly condemned by the Romney campaign as a sign that Santorum "is now willing to wear the other team's jersey if he thinks it will get him more votes."

Romney has come back from a deficit in the Michigan polls to creep ahead in some surveys, and his aides believed his campaign has the organizational strength for a good turnout.

Other Republican candidates, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, are running far behind the two leaders and have not competed heavily, making the state a Romney-or-Santorum contest.

Romney has been hammering home his view that his experience as a private equity executive and former Massachusetts governor makes him the best candidate to defeat Obama and lead the U.S. economy back to strong job growth.

He has also been sharply critical of Santorum.

"I've spent 25 years in business," Romney said. "I understand why jobs go, why they come. I understand what happens to corporate profit, where it goes if the government takes it. This is what I've done for all my life. Senator Santorum is a nice guy, but he's never had a job in the private sector."

This kind of message is resonating among many Michigan Republicans.

"He could be more charismatic but a steady, good businessman is what we need," said John Bas of Berkeley. "Is he a rock star? No. But rock stars probably don't make good presidents."

Romney may not be a rock star, but he had one campaign for him on Monday. Kid Rock and his band joined Romney at a theatre in Royal Oak to play a song that is the signature anthem of Romney's campaign events, "Born Free."

Romney and his wife Ann watched the brief concert from the front row and clapped to the beat.

Romney persuaded Kid Rock to perform at the rally during an hour-long meeting last Thursday at the rocker's Michigan home. Kid Rock got Romney's commitment that if elected he would help the city of Detroit, the state of Michigan and U.S. troops, a Romney campaign spokesman said.

(Additional reporting by Sam Youngman; editing by Christopher Wilson)