What Ails Sino-U.S. Relations? An Interview With Yan Xuetong

China Daily, Xinhua, August 2, 2010

EDITOR'S NOTE:

Yan Xuetong is the director of Tsinghua University's Institute of International Studies and an expert on Sino-US ties. Yan, who has a PhD from the University of Berkeley, California, shares his views on recent Sino-US disputes with China Daily's Fu Yu.

Question: Sino-US ties have suffered some setbacks this year, with disputes over trade, Google, the arms sales to Taiwan, US President Barack Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama and the recent military exercise between the US and Republic of Korea (ROK). Why?

Answer: After the Cold War, Sino-US relations have been on a rollercoaster ride. China-US ties have been unpredictable since the mid-1990s. That is the nature of the current Sino-US relationship, too.

Since the mid-1990s, Sino-US ties have been one of pseudo-friendship. While the two countries acknowledge each other as strategic partners, their common interests in developing such a partnership have been fewer than the conflicts between them. Their intentions to improve ties are always hindered by conflicts of interests.

In other words, though they are eager to improve bilateral ties, they find their relationship deteriorating because of conflicts of interests. Every time, bilateral ties suffer a setback, the two countries try more desperately to improve them, despite a lack of foundation.

Q: Where policy is concerned, China will always be the focus of the US administration. But during her recent visit to Asia, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried all means to establish closer ties with India and Vietnam. On the other hand, some people in the US have accused China of trying to expand its influence over the South China Sea. What does it say about Sino-US ties?

A: The US is fully aware that its relationship with China is the most important bilateral relationship in the world . But just because it's the most important relationship doesn't mean they are necessarily on good terms. Because the ties are essential but not necessarily "good", the US feels the need to align itself with more neighbors of China to restrain it.

Since Bill Clinton's second term as US president, Washington has employed a dual policy toward China, namely cooperating with it on the trade and economic front while trying to contain it militarily. This policy has not changed during the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations. The US may value its relationship with China, but that does not stop it from trying to restrain China.

Q: Before Google left the Chinese mainland, Beijing accused Washington of abetting the online search engine. On the other hand, the US complained that China was being "bold" on Google's withdrawal because the environment for foreign investors in the country had changed as it was now trying to protect domestic enterprises. What is your opinion on this?

A: I'm not an economist, and I don't know much about China-US economic relations.

From a political perspective, the dispute reminds us of the serious differences over human rights between China and the US. The conflict over human rights will resurface whenever a chance presents itself. The Google incident is nothing but another Sino-US conflict over human rights. But it's nothing compared to China-US disputes over human rights in the early 1990s.

The Google dispute, nevertheless, tells us that Sino-US differences over human rights will be difficult to resolve. What's more, whenever the US thinks the time is "right", it will use a certain incident to pressure China over human rights. The Google dispute ended without a clear-cut solution, and that means disputes over human rights will continue to influence Sino-US ties. Yet human rights conflicts have less of an impact on Sino-US ties than business or security disputes.

Q: How will Sino-US ties fare in the second half of this year?

A: There will be no marked improvement between July and October. On the contrary, it is likely that new business conflicts will occur. The relationship may start improving from November or December because top Chinese officials are scheduled to visit the US then.

But by the end of this year, bilateral ties are not likely to reach the level of last November when Obama visited China. The yuan is likely to rise against the US dollar during the rest of the year. But since the revaluation will be limited, the US may not be satisfied and that could intensify trade frictions between the two countries.

Q: What should Chinese and US leaders do to maintain healthy bilateral ties?

A: The common interests of China and the US are limited. They won't increase just because Chinese and American leaders wish them to, rather they depend on reality.

If leaders of the two countries want to expand the scope of Sino-US cooperation, they have to expand their common interests instead of intensifying their conflicts. That is, they should work toward preventing new conflicts from arising and keeping the existing ones from escalating.

The fact is, neither China nor the US is willing to face up to its conflicts of interests. If they don't accept the disputes, their policies can only cover up mutual differences, not stabilize the relationship.

In my opinion, if the two sides can face up to their conflicts of interests, they can lay a foundation for preventive cooperation. And this can help stabilize Sino-US ties.

Editor: Wang Guanqun

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