Mikhail Mordasov

MOSCOW, August 19, 2010 (RIA Novosti)

Russia may have to import more than 5 million tons of grain in 2010-2011, Russian business daily Vedomosti quoted a source close to the Agriculture Ministry as saying on Thursday.

The ministry had already decided to begin importing grain, but still had to decide on the required amount, the source said.

"The issue is in the discussion phase and no final decision has been taken," a high-ranking official said.

The managers of two major Russian grain exporting companies told the paper they knew the ministry was discussing the issue of grain imports. Russia would import grain from one of its neighbors, most likely Kazakhstan, they said.

The Kazakh agriculture minister said on Wednesday the country expects to export 8 million tons of grain from its harvest of 13.5-14.5 million tons in 2010-2011. Of this figure, 2 million tons has been set aside for Russia, Iran and other countries.

The paper said Kazakhstan is ready to export grain to Russia, although the Kazakh Agriculture Ministry said it had not yet received any official request for grain from Russia.

A spokesman for the Russian Agriculture Ministry said no meetings on the subject of grain imports had been planned.

Russia imports around 1.5 million tons of grain a year, but last season only imported 400 thousand tons, Russian Grain Union (RZS) President Arkady Zlochevsky said.

The most grain imported in one calendar year this decade was recorded in 2000 when 4.68 million tons were imported after a harvest of 64.8 million tons. Grain imports were much higher in the Soviet Union, reaching 20 million tons a year.

RZS forecasts predict Russia will import 2-2.5 million tons of grain this agricultural year.

On Monday, the Russian agricultural research body SovEcon lowered its grain harvest forecasts from 70-75 million tons (July 26) to 59.5-63.5 million tons. The latest forecast from the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies was 61-63 million tons.

The official forecast of the Agriculture Ministry still stands at 60-67 million tons. The ministry yesterday reported that, as of August 18, 40.1 million tons of grain from an area of around 19.2 hectares had been milled (54 percent of the harvested area has been lost due to the drought.)

No decision on the import of grain can be taken until the balance sheets are determined, Zlochevsky said.

National Grain Producers Union President Pavel Skurikhin said the situation would become clearer at the end of September, after the Siberian harvests have been gathered.