Could Angela Merkel Win Two Battles in One Election?

    by Xinhua writer Wu Liming

    BERLIN, Sept. 26, 2009,  (Xinhua) --

As the German general election is approaching, Chancellor Angela Merkel and her party are gearing up for the last push of campaigning even on the day prior to Sunday's ballots.

    It is known to all that Merkel has at least two ambitions for Sunday's election: one, of course, is to be re-elected for a second term; the other, is to bid farewell to current "grand coalition" and form a new coalition with Free Democrats (FDP).

    The question is: could Merkel win both battles in Sunday's election?

    The latest polls released on Wednesday showed support for Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) stood at 35 percent, followed by the Social Democrats (SPD) with 26 percent, the FDP with 13 percent, the Greens with 11 percent and the Left party with 10 percent.

    Merkel's conservative bloc (CDU/CSU) thus boasts unparalleled lead over the SPD, the traditional top rival of the CDU/CSU. The advantage suggests Merkel has a good chance of securing a second term in the weekend election, thus winning her first battle.

    "I think it is pretty clear that Ms. Merkel will stay as the chancellor of the country," said Jan Techau, head of the European Studies Center at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), in an exclusive interview with Xinhua on Thursday.

    "There are only two realistic options for the coalition government, either the conservative-liberal coalition with Merkel as chancellor, or the continuation of the grand coalition between conservatives and the SPD where she will also be the chancellor," Techau said.

    Merkel has long voiced her preference to form a new government with pro-business FPD and end current "grand coalition" that were forged four years ago.

    However, Merkel's second battle has not yet been secured, but the balance is tipped in favor of Merkel.

    A CDU/CSU-FDP coalition is expected to win some 48 percent of the votes, according to pollsters Forsa and Allensbach, placing them one to two percentage points ahead of the combined votes for the left bloc of SPD, Greens and Left Party.

    Pollster Matthias Jung predicted a "narrow, but secure majority for black-yellow," referring to the respective colors of the CDU/CSU and FDP.

    What's good for Merkel is that the SPD has ruled out entering into government with the Left Party. Therefore, the CDU and FDP could form a feasible coalition without an overall parliamentary majority, according to the analysis released by German news agency DPA.

    Merkel could also benefit from German election rules, or the so-called "overhang seat" rules by electoral jargon.

    German voters cast two votes: one for a local direct candidate, and the other for an overall party preference.

    When one party wins more direct votes than overall party votes, they are allowed to keep the extra, or "overhang" seats -- which could give the CDU up to 20 overhang seats, local media estimated.

    However, uncertain elements are still threatening Merkel's sweeping victory in the second battle.

    First, 48 percent of combined support rate for Merkel's CDU/CSU and the FPD is still risky.

    Secondly, one-third of over 60 million voters across the country have not made up their minds, which means the race is far from over.

    Thirdly, history proves that election outcome does not always copy the pre-election polls.

    In the last German election in 2005, pre-election polls had anticipated a black-yellow (CDU/CSU-FDP) majority, but Merkel's CDU's performance was far worse than expected in the election, leading to the "grand coalition" between the CDU/CSU and its top rival, the SPD.

    Just as Techau put it, the two options are "too narrow" so far and "it is hard to say which option will prevail."

Editor: Li Xianzhi