US Democrats miss crucial chance to wrap up presidential nomination race

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www.chinaview.cn 2008-05-08 10:17:24

By Yang Qingchuan

WASHINGTON, May 7 (Xinhua) --

As Democratic presidential primaries were settled in North Carolina and Indiana Tuesday, there wasn't any big surprise.

With 187 convention delegates at stake, both Sen. Barrack Obama of Illinois and Sen. Hillary Clinton had hoped the day would change their fortune in the prolonged battle.

Obama had wanted the primaries to be "tiebreaker" while Hillary had hoped they could be "game-changer."

However, since they split the victory with winning one state each, neither happened.

Obama captured a decisive victory in North Carolina on Tuesday, but Clinton narrowly won Indiana, a result representing a lost opportunity for Democrats to end the nomination race as soon as possible.

MISSED OPPORTUNITY

Tuesday was the last primary day that could fundamentally change the dynamic of the Democratic contest.

North Carolina and Indiana together account for 187 pledged delegates, exceeding the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania and roughly equaling the next four states combined as a whole. But since neither Obama nor Clinton managed to sweep the two states, a crucial opportunity to close the deal is missed. A victory in Indiana allowed Clinton to continue her campaignin to the final rounds of the Democratic presidential race and shake off pressure from some party leaders who have called on her to end her candidacy.

With an impressive win in North Carolina, Obama retained his lead in delegates and the popular vote, but once again failed to force Clinton out of the race.

After Tuesday, there will be only six primaries left for the Democratic nomination battle and none will be decisive. And the six contests line up in predictable fashion: Clinton is expected to easily win West Virginia on May 13, Kentucky on May 20 and Puerto Rico on June. 1.

Obama is heavily favored in Oregon on May 20 and Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

As a result, the final contests will have little effect on the delegate count.

Obama is expected to finish the primary season roughly 100 shy of the 2,024 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Clinton will be around 250 short of the goal line.

CLINTON'S OPTIONS MORE LIMITED

Tuesday's primary results ensured that the race will go on, but it also means Clinton's options to catch up with Obama becomes more limited.

For Obama, he was more relieved at the end of the day after several tough weeks in which he was on the defensive over the inflammatory comments of his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright. In a mathematical sense, his comfortable victory in North Carolina and a nearly-tie with Clinton in Indiana, added to his lead in delegate count and made him closer to the nomination. More importantly, he can use the impressive victory in North Carolina, a big state and a swing state in general elections, to suppress the Clinton camp's accusations that he is a "flawed" candidate when facing the Republican nominee in November. Since she couldn't upset Obama on Tuesday, one remaining option for Clinton seems to be stepping up the efforts to count the disputed results in Florida and Michigan, where the states held contests in defiance of Democratic Party rules.

If Clinton can win the battle to have the delegations from those two states seated at the conventions on the basis of the vote there, she could greatly reduce Obama's lead in pledged delegates.

The Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet on May 31 to vote on the issue.

That will carry some hope for Clinton but it is also an uphill effort.

Some analysts argue that the only real hope for Clinton now is to wait for something to happen that can shake confidence in Obama in a way that the Wright episode has not.

DEMOCRATS' BIGGEST FEAR

The biggest fear among Democrats now is that the protracted nomination battle will benefit Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who in effect wrapped up the Republican nomination in February and now runs even with either of the two Democrats in national polls. There's a growing consensus among Democratic party leaders that no matter how the race between Obama and Clinton ends, it should finish soon after June 3, the last day of the primary season. In an interview on National Public Radio, former vice president Al Gore expressed confidence that a Democratic presidential nominee will be decided soon after the last nomination contests on June 3.

"There will be a nominee before the convention," he said, referring to the Aug. 25-28 Democratic national convention. Another top Democrat, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, told the USA Today newspaper that once the last primary ballots are cast on June 3, Clinton and Obama will have "days, not weeks" to make their case to the party super delegates who will cast the deciding votes in the protracted nominating contest. "I think it will end pretty soon" after the last primary, Reidsaid.

Editor: Du Guodong