Energy Expert Paul Sullivan Sounds Alarm Over Oil Exhaustion

Energy expert sounds alarm over oil

www.chinaview.cn 2008-07-20 17:50:24

·Energy experts cautioned Sunday the fossil fuel of oil is facing the danger of exhaustion. ·Paul Sullivan urged world is in urgent need of developing alternative energy resources. ·He added political uncertainty in major oil producers drives new energy innovation.

AMMAN, July 20 (Xinhua) --

Energy experts cautioned here the fossil fuel of oil is facing the danger of exhaustion and that the world is in urgent need of developing alternative energy resources, local daily Jordan Times reported Sunday.

"Oil is finished, it's over with, it's done," said Paul Sullivan, economics professor with the National Defense University in Washington said during a seminar on energy, security and development at the University of Jordan.

Most of the major oil discoveries in the last century were made in the 1960s and 1970s, and any further discoveries will not come easy, he said.

"The next potential areas of oil will probably be in the Arctic or very deep water," said Sullivan, adding that the extractions under such conditions would be "very expensive."

In addition, he said political uncertainty in the world's current major oil producers, such as Nigeria's difficult political and economic situation, instability in the Gulf region and the disputed Iran nuclear issue, drives new energy innovation.

The expert said he believes, however, there is a silver lining in the recent hike in oil prices, adding that many engineers and inventors now focus on developing alternative energy resources in line of current surging energy cost.

Nawaf Tell, director of the Center for Strategic Studies with the University of Jordan, echoed Sullivan by saying that it is the time to look into energy alternatives.

In addition to the government's recent push towards nuclear power, Tell said Jordan's energy portfolio should include wind and solar energy as well as a renewed focus on energy efficiency.

Sullivan suggested oil-barren Jordan should consider an energy technology of "solar tower," a two-km-high concrete tower affixed with solar panels.

Using solar panels and massive wind vanes, wind generated by a temperature difference in the solar tower could generate enough electricity for 2 million people, he said, noting that applying such technology would cost the kingdom between 300 million to 500 million U.S. dollars.

Moreover, Sullivan said Jordan has another potential energy source, underground shale oil, which has the potential to produce some 40 billion barrels of oil.

Oil prices end lower on four-day drop

www.chinaview.cn 2008-07-19 05:23:20

NEW YORK, July 18 (Xinhua) --

Crude futures fell for a fourth day Friday as the market continued to concern about the falling demand and the tension in the Middle East eased.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery dipped 41 cents to settle at 128.88 U.S. dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for September delivery fell 88 cents to settle at 130.19 dollars a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange.

U.S. fuel consumption fell 3 percent in the first half of 2008,the biggest decline for the period in 17 years, the American Petroleum Institute's monthly report showed Friday. Meanwhile, higher energy prices have helped sent the U.S. economy to the weakest six-month of growth in five years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

Concerns that a conflict in Middle East eased as the U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs of the State Department William Burns will meet with Iranian and European leaders in Geneva this weekend on Iran's nuclear talks. Worries of potential disruptions of the area's crude exportation had pushed oil prices higher in the past few weeks.

Oil prices started a sharp slide Tuesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke told the Congress that high gas prices had begun to affect consumer demand. Later his comment was backed by the U.S. Energy Department's data of unexpected increase in crude and gasoline inventories. Prices have dropped 16.30 dollars in the past four trading sessions.

Editor: Yan Liang

News Analysis: Who pushes oil prices higher?

www.chinaview.cn 2008-07-11 15:18:00

VIENNA, July 10 (Xinhua) --

Since last July, the average oil prices of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)have almost doubled, rising from less than 70 U.S. dollars per barrel (dpb) to over 140 dpb. Facing the skyrocketing prices, different people gave different reasons.

CONSUMING COUNTRIES: INADEQUATE SUPPLY MAIN FACTOR FOR PRICES HIKE

During the debates on why the oil prices surged so high, most Western oil consuming countries said the situation has largely resulted from supply shortage, and they blamed OPEC for refusing a production increase.

In the United States, the world's top energy consumer, the lower house of parliament has adopted a bill earlier this year which authorizes the U.S. government to sue OPEC for controlling oil prices.

In a report released recently by the International Energy Agency (IEA), it said that the real reason for the current high prices was the concerns on the global stable supply in the future.

IEA predicted an annual demand growth of 1.6 percent till 2013,which means the daily global oil output should rise from the current 86.87 million barrels to 94.14 million barrels.

IEA's latest energy report also adjusted its oil demand of the second half of this year from 86.10 million barrels per day to 86.90 million barrels, predicting even a daily demand of 87.70 million barrels for next year.

OPEC MEMBERS REJECT ACCUSATIONS FROM CONSUMING COUNTRIES

OPEC members, rejecting the accusations from the consuming countries, have blamed speculators for inflating oil's rally and adding volatility to the trade. They have demanded further regulation of future markets to give a blow to speculators.

They also attributed the price hike to the weaker dollar and escalating geopolitical tension rather than the imbalance between supply and demand.

King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz of Saudi Arabia, owner of over one-fifth of the world's oil reserves with a strong say in OPEC, announced recently that the high prices were mainly the results of speculations and OPEC would remain powerless in curbing the prices.

Their reluctance for a production growth is mainly drawn from their concerns over the growth prospect in the international oil demand in the coming years.

Due to the increasing oil output of the non-OPEC countries and the widening use of the alternative energies such as biofuels, OPEC predicted that the growth of the global oil demand would slowdown and therefore lowered its global oil demand forecast for the year 2030 to 113 million barrels per day, which was some 4 million barrels less than their 2007 estimation.

It is the current OPEC belief that the world's main oil consuming countries have had a downward trend of crude oil consumption due to their investments in the energy-saving technologies and alternative energies.

Obviously, OPEC members considers it risky if they invest large amount of money into their oil exploitation and refining capability due to the uncertainties in the future oil demand.

As such investments usually take five to seven years to take effective in the production capability, these OPEC countries worried that the supply and demand on the international oil market would be even reversed at that time.

They therefore will continue their reluctance in raising output unless they get future demand insurance from the oil consuming countries.

EXPERTS CALL FOR WORLD JOINT RESPONSIBILITY.

Prices for crude oil, as one of the most important strategic resources and basic raw materials, would be influenced by not only supply and demand but also geopolitical developments, global economic outlook, climate policies, population and stock market, experts generally said, thus calling for a joint responsibility.

Experts also reached another consensus that the recent souring prices should be attributed to financial factors rather than the commodity itself. The devaluating dollar pushed a large amount of money into such commodity markets as oil and gold, just as Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari put it earlier that "the problem was not the oil was too expensive, but the dollar too cheap."

Editor: Du Guodong

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