The Bush Administration Lowers Expectations from Upcoming November Israeli-Palestinian Peace Conference

AP Headline: U.S. quiet on pending Mideast meeting

By ANNE GEARAN AP Diplomatic Writer

Oct 11, 2007, 3:36 AM EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) --

Just weeks before a peace conference marking President Bush's most direct intervention in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, U.S. officials are trying to say as little as possible about what is on the table.

The November session will be a serious run at problems that have proved insoluble in the past, U.S. officials say, yet Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and others have avoided talking specifics or using the lexicon of past, failed peace talks.

Rice calls the U.S.-sponsored session an "international meeting," instead of the loftier summit or conference, as a way to keep expectations low. She talks about establishing a Palestinian state, the practical goal of peace talks, but almost never uses the word "peace."

The United States is still mum on the most basic details about the meeting, including precise dates, location - it's expected to be in Annapolis, Md. - and the guest list, and Rice will be on the spot to fill in the blanks during a preparatory trip to the Middle East that is schedule to start this weekend.

The intentional understatement masks the high stakes for a conference that could christen a historic agreement on some of the most difficult issues in the six-decade conflict, and the political and diplomatic risk Bush is taking late in his presidency.

Former national security adviser Brent Scowcroft, a Rice mentor, and other well-known Washington advisers warned Bush and Rice in a letter Wednesday that the session must tackle the "substance of a permanent peace."

Arab states say they welcome Bush's engagement but are wary of being mere window-dressing for a too-little, too-late attempt to revive peace talks after a seven-year freeze.

The Bush administration's closest friends in the Arab world have said they want no part of a feel-good session, or have put conditions on their participation.

"We haven't issued any invitations yet," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said this week, cautioning there will be "posturing" on all sides ahead of the meeting. "We're going to focus on making this meeting the most efficient and effective use of all the participants' time to try to move the process forward."

U.S. officials say they are encouraged by meaty discussions between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and new negotiating teams named this week. Those talks have not derailed despite political opposition and uncertainty on both sides.

The best-case scenario has Olmert and Abbas fashioning a fairly detailed framework for an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

That document would be ready ahead of the November meeting. Arab neighbors, including some that do not recognize Israel, would then sign off on the plan during the conference. More formal peace talks to finish the details would follow, a process that would probably take months if not years.

"We've done a lot of dialogue between the two men, and they are making progress," Bush told an interviewer from the Arabic-language television news channel Al Arabiya last week.

The two leaders' work means "the average Palestinian and average Israeli will begin to see what a vision looks like," Bush said. "In other words, something to work for; something that's more tangible than just a Rose Garden speech by the president or hopeful comments by others - something real."

Abbas on Wednesday laid out his most specific demands for the borders of a future independent state, calling for a full Israeli withdrawal from all territories captured in the 1967 Mideast war.

With Israel seeking to retain parts of the West Bank and east Jerusalem, Abbas' comments appeared to set the stage for tough negotiations, which are expected to include complicated arrangements such as land swaps and shared control over holy sites.

Olmert told his parliament Monday he won't be deterred from seeking a peace deal despite the need for painful concessions, warning that failure would mean a "demographic struggle steeped in blood and tears."

Olmert's closest political ally, Vice Premier Haim Ramon, spoke publicly about a future division of Jerusalem - long taboo in Israeli politics.

The future of Jerusalem is one of the three core problems that have shipwrecked past negotiations. The others are the borders of an eventual Palestinian state and the rights of Palestinians and their descendants who left homes in what is now Israel.

Rice has said that the United States isn't ignoring those issues, but she says there are other practical questions to consider.

The conference's success will be judged largely on whether regional power-broker Saudi Arabia attends and throws support to future peace talks, and on whether both sides and their U.S. host squarely address those three potential deal-breaking issues.

Whatever the outcome, merely holding the session marks a turning point for Bush and advisers who had steered clear of active Mideast peacemaking for most of Bush's tenure. That changed this year, largely at the urging of Arab allies Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.

Rice and her aides say they see an opportunity now that did not exist a few years ago. The administration is gambling that it can capitalize on a bitter internal Palestinian split, strengthening the moderate Abbas at the expense of his Hamas rivals, and challenge Arab states to come off the sidelines to endorse a deal they say they want.

The administration has said it will invite adversary Syria to the conference, but plans no olive branch to Hamas. The Scowcroft letter urged eventual engagement with Hamas, perhaps through intermediaries, to lessen its power as a spoiler for any deal that Abbas might reach.

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